Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 33.907441 38.136281 43.073582 49.368635 57.343561 67.352856 81.296164
2025-05-18 27.543312 32.576537 39.005567 48.154011 61.483370 81.478088 117.050018
2025-05-25 23.863319 29.273077 36.665569 48.161383 67.124919 101.169555 182.860384
2025-06-01 21.153022 26.642511 34.529722 47.682345 71.803195 123.301300 301.164244
2025-06-08 19.086945 24.524012 32.643569 46.968074 75.753684 148.481365 552.094847
2025-06-15 17.502610 22.852159 31.097766 46.357943 79.662821 179.486296 1332.540980
2025-06-22 16.281642 21.553768 29.907633 46.050352 84.167018 221.514990 10423.471969
2025-06-29 15.131897 20.228529 28.465554 44.895737 86.119591 260.448277 NaN
2025-07-06 14.726284 20.017420 28.866058 47.543974 100.119833 419.792095 NaN
2025-07-13 13.930718 19.092979 27.875219 46.963040 104.198229 549.942556 NaN
2025-07-20 13.350793 18.468076 27.343886 47.297836 111.894843 842.265888 NaN
2025-07-27 12.855949 17.940043 26.923054 47.797372 120.944453 1523.258556 NaN
2025-08-03 12.351867 17.365331 26.365124 47.893086 129.052344 3461.543973 NaN
2025-08-10 11.805189 16.678935 25.521115 47.092678 132.748982 9522.684564 NaN
2025-08-17 11.404889 16.219377 25.078581 47.277406 142.159506 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.989044 15.704454 24.473846 46.899699 148.549436 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.584912 15.185628 23.814393 46.246702 153.060797 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.220222 14.716509 23.217754 45.672341 157.986772 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.906733 14.322156 22.744202 45.382227 165.167357 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.551087 13.833376 22.034676 44.259698 165.075194 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.496364 13.889264 22.487337 46.847648 201.790501 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.220196 13.521182 21.989541 46.281908 208.241062 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.021492 13.287486 21.769549 46.609329 226.380431 NaN NaN